SARS-CoV-2 testing, infection and places of contamination in France, a national cross-sectional study, December 2021.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to describe the use of diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 in France until December 2021, the characteristics of people infected, and places of contamination. METHODS: Data were collected from the national 2021 Health Barometer cross-sectional study, which was conducted between February and December 2021 and included French-speaking individuals aged 18-85 years old selected through randomly generated landline and mobile phone numbers. Participants were interviewed about COVID-19-like symptoms in the previous 12 months, diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2, positive diagnosis for SARS-CoV-2, and the place(s) of contamination. Determinants of diagnostic testing and of infection were studied using univariate and multivariate Poisson regressions. RESULTS: A total of 24,514 persons participated in the study. We estimated that 66.4% [65.0-67.7] of persons had been tested for SARS-CoV-2 the last time they experienced COVID-19-like symptoms, and that 9.8% [9.3-10.3] of the population in France - with or without symptoms - had been tested positive. Diagnostic testing was less frequent in men, unemployed persons, and people living alone; it was also less frequent during the first months of the pandemic. The estimated proportion of the population infected was higher in healthcare professionals (PRa: 1.5 [1.3-1.7]), those living in large cities ( > = 200 000 inhabitants, and Paris area) (1.4 [1.2-1.6]), and in households comprising > 3 persons (1.7 [1.5-2.0]). It was lower in retired persons (0.8 [0.6-0.97]) and those over 65 years old (0.6 [0.4-0.9]). Almost two-thirds (65.7%) of infected persons declared they knew where they were contaminated; 5.8% [4.5-7.4] reported being contaminated outdoors, 47.9% [44.8-51.0] in unventilated indoor environments, and 43.4% [40.3-46.6] in ventilated indoor environments. Specifically, 51.1% [48.0-54.2] declared they were contaminated at home or in a family of friend's house, 29.1% [26.4-31.9] at their workplace, 13.9% [11.9-16.1] in a healthcare structure, and 9.0% [7.4-10.8] in a public eating place (e.g., cafeteria, bar, restaurant). CONCLUSIONS: To limit viral spread, preventive actions should preferentially target persons tested least frequently and those at a higher risk of infection. They should also target contamination in households, healthcare structures, and public eating places. Importantly, contamination is most frequent in places where prevention measures are most difficult to implement.

Vaccine effectiveness and duration of protection of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines against Delta and Omicron BA.1 symptomatic and severe COVID-19 outcomes in adults aged 50 years and over in France

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants calls for continuous monitoring of vaccine effectiveness (VE). We estimated the absolute effectiveness of complete 2-dose primary vaccination and booster vaccination with COVID-19 mRNA vaccines, and the duration of protection against Delta and Omicron BA.1 symptomatic infection and severe outcomes. French residents aged ≥ 50 years, who presented with SARS-CoV-2-like symptoms and tested for SARS-CoV-2 between June 6, 2021 and February 10, 2022 were included. A test-negative study was conducted to estimate VE against symptomatic infection, using conditional logistic regression models. Cox proportional hazard regressions were performed to assess additional protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes (any hospitalization, and intensive care units [ICU] admission or in-hospital death). In total, 273 732 cases and 735 919 controls were included. VE against symptomatic infection after 2-doses vaccination was 86% (95% CI: 75%-92%) for Delta and 70% (58%-79%) for Omicron, 7-30 days post vaccination. Protection waned over time, reaching 60% (57%-63%) against Delta and 20% (16.%-24%) for Omicron BA.1 >120 days after vaccination. The booster dose fully restored protection against symtpomatic Delta infection (95% [81%-99%]) but only partially against symptomatic Omicron BA.1 infection(63% [59%-67%]). VE against Delta-related severe outcomes was above 95% with 2 doses, and persisted for at least four months. Protection against any Omicron BA.1-hospitalization was 92% (65%-99%) at 8-30 days, and 82% (67%-91%) >120 days from the second dose. Against BA.1 ICU admission or in-patient death, VE stood at 98% (0%-100%) at 8-30 days, and was 90% (40%-99%) >120 days from the second dose. Protection confered by mRNA vaccines against severe disease caused by either Delta or Omicron BA.1 appeared high and sustained over time. Protection against symptomatic diseases after 2 doses decreased rapidly, especially against Omicron BA.1. A booster dose restored high protection against Delta but only a partial one against Omicron BA.1.

Acceptability of mandatory vaccination against influenza, measles, pertussis and varicella by workers in healthcare facilities: a national cross-sectional study, France, 2019.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination of healthcare workers (HCW) aims to protect them and to reduce transmission to susceptible patients. Influenza, measles, pertussis, and varicella vaccinations are recommended but not mandatory for HCW in France. Insufficient vaccine coverage for these diseases in HCW has raised the question of introducing mandatory vaccination. We conducted a survey to estimate acceptability of mandatory vaccination for these four vaccines by HCW working in healthcare facilities (HCF) in France, and to identify associated determinants. METHODS: In 2019, we performed a cross-sectional survey of physicians, nurses, midwives and nursing assistants working in HCF in France using a randomised stratified three-stage sampling design (HCF type, ward category, HCW category). Data were collected in face-to-face interviews using a tablet computer. We investigated the possible determinants of acceptability of mandatory vaccination using univariate and multivariate Poisson regressions, and estimated prevalence ratios (PR). RESULTS: A total of 8594 HCW in 167 HCF were included. For measles, pertussis, and varicella, self-reported acceptability of mandatory vaccination (very or quite favourable) was 73.1% [CI95%: 70.9-75.1], 72.1% [69.8-74.3], and 57.5% [54.5-57.7], respectively. Acceptability varied according to i) HCW and ward category for these three vaccinations, ii) age group for measles and pertussis, and iii) sex for varicella. For mandatory influenza vaccination, acceptability was lower (42.7% [40.6-44.9]), and varied greatly between HCW categories (from 77.2% for physicians to 32.0% for nursing assistants). CONCLUSION: HCW acceptability of mandatory vaccination was high for measles, pertussis and varicella but not as high for influenza. Vaccination for COVID-19 is mandatory for HCW in France. Replication of this study after the end of the COVID-19 crisis would help assess whether the pandemic had an impact on their acceptability of mandatory vaccination, in particular for influenza.

Vaccine effectiveness and duration of protection of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines against Delta and Omicron BA.1 symptomatic and severe COVID-19 outcomes in adults aged 50 years and over in France.

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants calls for continuous monitoring of vaccine effectiveness (VE). We estimated the absolute effectiveness of complete 2-dose primary vaccination and booster vaccination with COVID-19 mRNA vaccines, and the duration of protection against Delta and Omicron BA.1 symptomatic infection and severe outcomes. French residents aged ≥50 years, who presented with SARS-CoV-2-like symptoms and tested for SARS-CoV-2 between June 6, 2021 and February 10, 2022 were included. A test-negative study was conducted to estimate VE against symptomatic infection, using conditional logistic regression models. Cox proportional hazard regressions were performed to assess additional protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes (any hospitalization, and intensive care units [ICU] admission or in-hospital death). In total, 273732 cases and 735 919 controls were included. VE against symptomatic infection after 2-doses vaccination was 86% (95% CI: 75-92%) for Delta and 70% (58-79%) for Omicron, 7-30 days post vaccination. Protection waned over time, reaching 60% (57-63%) against Delta and 20% (16.-24%) for Omicron BA.1 > 120 days after vaccination. The booster dose fully restored protection against symtpomatic Delta infection (95% [81-99%]) but only partially against symptomatic Omicron BA.1 infection (63% [59-67%]). VE against Delta-related severe outcomes was above 95% with 2 doses, and persisted for at least four months. Protection against any Omicron BA.1-hospitalization was 92% (65%-99%) at 8-30 days, and 82% (67%-91%) > 120 days from the second dose. Against BA.1 ICU admission or in-patient death, VE stood at 98% (0-100%) at 8-30 days, and was 90% (40-99%) > 120 days from the second dose. Protection confered by mRNA vaccines against severe disease caused by either Delta or Omicron BA.1 appeared high and sustained over time. Protection against symptomatic diseases after 2 doses decreased rapidly, especially against Omicron BA.1. A booster dose restored high protection against Delta but only a partial one against Omicron BA.1.

Direct impact of COVID-19 by estimating disability-adjusted life years at national level in France in 2020.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization declared a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), on March 11, 2020. The standardized approach of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) allows for quantifying the combined impact of morbidity and mortality of diseases and injuries. The main objective of this study was to estimate the direct impact of COVID-19 in France in 2020, using DALYs to combine the population health impact of infection fatalities, acute symptomatic infections and their post-acute consequences, in 28 days (baseline) up to 140 days, following the initial infection. METHODS: National mortality, COVID-19 screening, and hospital admission data were used to calculate DALYs based on the European Burden of Disease Network consensus disease model. Scenario analyses were performed by varying the number of symptomatic cases and duration of symptoms up to a maximum of 140 days, defining COVID-19 deaths using the underlying, and associated, cause of death. RESULTS: In 2020, the estimated DALYs due to COVID-19 in France were 990 710 (1472 per 100 000), with 99% of burden due to mortality (982 531 years of life lost, YLL) and 1% due to morbidity (8179 years lived with disability, YLD), following the initial infection. The contribution of YLD reached 375%, assuming the duration of 140 days of post-acute consequences of COVID-19. Post-acute consequences contributed to 49% of the total morbidity burden. The contribution of YLD due to acute symptomatic infections among people younger than 70 years was higher (67%) than among people aged 70 years and above (33%). YLL among people aged 70 years and above, contributed to 74% of the total YLL. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 had a substantial impact on population health in France in 2020. The majority of population health loss was due to mortality. Men had higher population health loss due to COVID-19 than women. Post-acute consequences of COVID-19 had a large contribution to the YLD component of the disease burden, even when we assume the shortest duration of 28 days, long COVID burden is large. Further research is recommended to assess the impact of health inequalities associated with these estimates.

Association between the COVID-19 pandemic and pertussis derived from multiple nationwide data sources, France, 2013 to 2020.

BackgroundInterventions to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic may impact other respiratory diseases.AimsWe aimed to study the course of pertussis in France over an 8-year period including the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and its association with COVID-19 mitigation strategies, using multiple nationwide data sources and regression models.MethodsWe analysed the number of French pertussis cases between 2013 and 2020, using PCR test results from nationwide outpatient laboratories (Source 1) and a network of the paediatric wards from 41 hospitals (Source 2). We also used reports of a national primary care paediatric network (Source 3). We conducted a quasi-experimental interrupted time series analysis, relying on negative binomial regression models. The models accounted for seasonality, long-term cycles and secular trend, and included a binary variable for the first national lockdown (start 16 March 2020).ResultsWe identified 19,039 pertussis cases from these data sources. Pertussis cases decreased significantly following the implementation of mitigation measures, with adjusted incidence rate ratios of 0.10 (95% CI: 0.04-0.26) and 0.22 (95% CI: 0.07-0.66) for Source 1 and Source 2, respectively. The association was confirmed in Source 3 with a median of, respectively, one (IQR: 0-2) and 0 cases (IQR: 0-0) per month before and after lockdown (p = 0.0048).ConclusionsThe strong reduction in outpatient and hospitalised pertussis cases suggests an impact of COVID-19 mitigation measures on pertussis epidemiology. Pertussis vaccination recommendations should be followed carefully, and disease monitoring should be continued to detect any resurgence after relaxation of mitigation measures.

Association of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions During the COVID-19 Pandemic With Invasive Pneumococcal Disease, Pneumococcal Carriage, and Respiratory Viral Infections Among Children in France.

Importance: An association between pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) has been previously established. However, it is unclear whether the decrease in IPD incidence observed after implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with concomitant changes in pneumococcal carriage and respiratory viral infections. Objective: To assess changes in IPD incidence after the implementation of NPIs during the COVID-19 pandemic and examine their temporal association with changes in pneumococcal carriage rate and respiratory viral infections (specifically respiratory syncytial virus [RSV] and influenza cases) among children in France. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used interrupted time series analysis of data from ambulatory and hospital-based national continuous surveillance systems of pneumococcal carriage, RSV and influenza-related diseases, and IPD between January 1, 2007, and March 31, 2021. Participants included 11 944 children younger than 15 years in France. Exposures: Implementation of NPIs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Main Outcomes and Measures: The estimated fraction of IPD change after implementation of NPIs and the association of this change with concomitant changes in pneumococcal carriage rate and RSV and influenza cases among children younger than 15 years. The estimated fraction of change was analyzed using a quasi-Poisson regression model. Results: During the study period, 5113 children (median [IQR] age, 1.0 [0.6-4.0] years; 2959 boys [57.9%]) had IPD, and 6831 healthy children (median [IQR] age, 1.5 [0.9-3.9] years; 3534 boys [51.7%]) received a swab test. Data on race and ethnicity were not collected. After NPI implementation, IPD incidence decreased by 63% (95% CI, -82% to -43%; P < .001) and was similar for non-13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine serotypes with both high disease potential (-63%; 95% CI, -77% to -48%; P < .001) and low disease potential (-53%; 95% CI, -70% to -35%; P < .001). The overall pneumococcal carriage rate did not significantly change after NPI implementation (-12%; 95% CI, -37% to 12%; P = .32), nor did the carriage rate for non-PCV13 serotypes with high disease potential (-26%; 95% CI, -100% to 52%; P = .50) or low disease potential (-7%; 95% CI, -34% to 20%; P = .61). After NPI implementation, the estimated number of influenza cases decreased by 91% (95% CI, -74% to -97%; P < .001), and the estimated number of RSV cases decreased by 74% (95% CI, -55% to -85%; P < .001). Overall, the decrease in influenza and RSV cases accounted for 53% (95% CI, -28% to -78%; P < .001) and 40% (95% CI, -15% to -65%; P = .002) of the decrease in IPD incidence during the NPI period, respectively. The decrease in IPD incidence was not associated with pneumococcal carriage, with carriage accounting for only 4% (95% CI, -7% to 15%; P = .49) of the decrease. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of data from multiple national continuous surveillance systems, a decrease in pediatric IPD incidence occurred after the implementation of NPIs in France; this decrease was associated with a decrease in viral infection cases rather than pneumococcal carriage rate. The association between pneumococcal carriage and IPD was potentially modified by changes in the number of RSV and influenza cases, suggesting that interventions targeting respiratory viruses, such as immunoprophylaxis or vaccines for RSV and influenza, may be able to prevent a large proportion of pediatric IPD cases.

Adherence and sustainability of interventions informing optimal control against the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: After one year of stop-and-go COVID-19 mitigation, in the spring of 2021 European countries still experienced sustained viral circulation due to the Alpha variant. As the prospect of entering a new pandemic phase through vaccination was drawing closer, a key challenge remained on how to balance the efficacy of long-lasting interventions and their impact on the quality of life. METHODS: Focusing on the third wave in France during spring 2021, we simulate intervention scenarios of varying intensity and duration, with potential waning of adherence over time, based on past mobility data and modeling estimates. We identify optimal strategies by balancing efficacy of interventions with a data-driven "distress" index, integrating intensity and duration of social distancing. RESULTS: We show that moderate interventions would require a much longer time to achieve the same result as high intensity lockdowns, with the additional risk of deteriorating control as adherence wanes. Shorter strict lockdowns are largely more effective than longer moderate lockdowns, for similar intermediate distress and infringement on individual freedom. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that favoring milder interventions over more stringent short approaches on the basis of perceived acceptability could be detrimental in the long term, especially with waning adherence.

In the spring of 2021, social distancing measures were strengthened in France to control the third wave of COVID-19 cases. While such measures are needed to slow the spread of the virus, they have a significant impact on the population's quality of life. Here, we use mathematical modelling based on hospital admission data and behavioural and health data (including data on mobility, indicators of social distancing, risk perception, and mental health) to evaluate optimal COVID-19 control strategies. We look at the effects of interventions, their sustainability and the population's adherence to them over time. We find that shorter, more stringent measures are likely to have similar effects on viral circulation and healthcare burden to long-lasting, less stringent but less sustainable interventions. Our findings have implications for the design and implementation of public health measures to control future COVID-19 waves.

Severe hospital events following symptomatic infection with Sars-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta variants in France, December 2021-January 2022: A retrospective, population-based, matched cohort study.

Background: A rapid increase in incidence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (sub-lineage BA.1) occurred in France in December 2021, while the Delta variant was prevailing since July 2021. We aimed to determine whether the risk of a severe hospital event following symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection differs for Omicron versus Delta. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study to compare severe hospital events (admission to intensive care unit or death) between Omicron and Delta symptomatic cases matched according to week of virological diagnosis and age. The analysis was adjusted for age, sex, vaccination status, presence of comorbidities and region of residence, using Cox proportional hazards model. Findings: Between 06/12/2021-28/01/2022, 184 364 cases were included, of which 931 had a severe hospital event (822 Delta, 109 Omicron). The risk of severe event was lower among Omicron versus Delta cases; the difference in severity between the two variants decreased with age (adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR)=0·13 95%CI: 0·08-0·20 among 40-64 years, aHR=0·50 95%CI: 0·26-0.98 among 80+ years). The risk of severe event increased with the presence of comorbidities (for very-high-risk comorbidity, aHR=4·15 95%CI: 2·86-6·01 among 40-64 years) and in males (aHR=2·28 95%CI: 1·82-2·85among 40-64 years) and was higher in unvaccinated compared to primo-vaccinated (aHR=7·29 95%CI: 5·58-9·54 among 40-64 years). A booster dose reduced the risk of severe hospital event in 80+ years infected with Omicron (aHR=0·29; 95%CI: 0·12-0·69). Interpretation: This study confirms the lower severity of Omicron compared to Delta. However, the difference in disease severity is less marked in the elderly. Further studies are needed to better understand the interactions between age and severity of variants. Funding: The study was performed as part of routine work at Public Health France.

Pertussis surveillance results from a French general practitioner network, France, 2017 to 2020.

IntroductionIn France, three complementary surveillance networks involving hospitals and paediatrician practices currently allow pertussis surveillance among infants (<1 year old) and children (1-12 years old). Data on incidences among adolescents (13-17 years old) and adults (≥ 18 years) are scarce. In 2017, a sentinel surveillance system called Sentinelles network, was implemented among general practitioners (GPs).AimThe purpose of Sentinelles network is to assess pertussis incidence, monitor the cases' age distribution and evaluate the impact of the country's vaccination policy. We present the results from the first 4 years of this surveillance.MethodsGPs of the French Sentinelles network reported weekly numbers of epidemiologically or laboratory-confirmed cases and their characteristics.ResultsA total of 132 cases were reported over 2017-2020. Estimated national incidence rates per 100,000 inhabitants were 17 (95% confidence interval (CI): 12-22) in 2017, 10 (95% CI: 6-14) in 2018, 15 (95% CI: 10-20) in 2019 and three (95% CI: 1-5) in 2020. The incidence rate was significantly lower in 2020 than in 2017-2019. Women were significantly more affected than men (83/132; 63% of women, p = 0.004); 66% (87/132) of cases were aged 15 years or over (median age: 31.5 years; range: 2 months-87 years). Among 37 vaccinated cases with data, 33 had received the recommended number of doses for their age.ConclusionsThese results concur with incidences reported in other European countries, and with studies showing that the incidences of several respiratory diseases decreased in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results also suggest a shift of morbidity towards older age groups, and a rapid waning of immunity after vaccination, justifying to continue this surveillance.

Agent-based modelling of reactive vaccination of workplaces and schools against COVID-19.

With vaccination against COVID-19 stalled in some countries, increasing vaccine accessibility and distribution could help keep transmission under control. Here, we study the impact of reactive vaccination targeting schools and workplaces where cases are detected, with an agent-based model accounting for COVID-19 natural history, vaccine characteristics, demographics, behavioural changes and social distancing. In most scenarios, reactive vaccination leads to a higher reduction in cases compared with non-reactive strategies using the same number of doses. The reactive strategy could however be less effective than a moderate/high pace mass vaccination program if initial vaccination coverage is high or disease incidence is low, because few people would be vaccinated around each case. In case of flare-ups, reactive vaccination could better mitigate spread if it is implemented quickly, is supported by enhanced test-trace-isolate and triggers an increased vaccine uptake. These results provide key information to plan an adaptive vaccination rollout.

Impact of booster vaccination on the control of COVID-19 Delta wave in the context of waning immunity: application to France in the winter 2021/22.

Europe has experienced a large COVID-19 wave caused by the Delta variant in winter 2021/22. Using mathematical models applied to Metropolitan France, we find that boosters administered to ≥ 65, ≥ 50 or ≥ 18 year-olds may reduce the hospitalisation peak by 25%, 36% and 43% respectively, with a delay of 5 months between second and third dose. A 10% reduction in transmission rates might further reduce it by 41%, indicating that even small increases in protective behaviours may be critical to mitigate the wave.

Estimated number of deaths directly averted in people 60 years and older as a result of COVID-19 vaccination in the WHO European Region, December 2020 to November 2021.

Since December 2019, over 1.5 million SARS-CoV-2-related fatalities have been recorded in the World Health Organization European Region - 90.2% in people ≥ 60 years. We calculated lives saved in this age group by COVID-19 vaccination in 33 countries from December 2020 to November 2021, using weekly reported deaths and vaccination coverage. We estimated that vaccination averted 469,186 deaths (51% of 911,302 expected deaths; sensitivity range: 129,851-733,744; 23-62%). Impact by country ranged 6-93%, largest when implementation was early.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant on incubation, transmission settings and vaccine effectiveness: Results from a nationwide case-control study in France.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess the settings and activities associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection in the context of B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant circulation in France, as well as the protection against symptomatic Delta infection. METHODS: In this nationwide case-control study, cases were SARS-CoV-2 infected adults recruited between 23 May and 13 August 2021. Controls were non-infected adults from a national representative panel matched to cases by age, sex, region, population density and calendar week. Participants completed an online questionnaire and multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to determine the association between acute SARS-CoV-2 infection and recent activity-related exposures, past history of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and COVID-19 vaccination. FINDINGS: We did not find any differences in the settings and activities associated with Delta versus non-Delta infections and grouped them for subsequent analyses. In multivariable analysis involving 12634 cases (8644 Delta and 3990 non-Delta) and 5560 controls, we found individuals under 40 years and attending bars (aOR:1.9; 95%CI:1.6-2.2) or parties (aOR:3.4; 95%CI:2.8-4.2) to be at increased risk of infection. In those aged 40 years and older, having children attend daycare (aOR:1.9; 95%CI:1.1-3.3), kindergarten (aOR:1.6; 95%CI:1.2-2.1), primary school (aOR:1.4; 95%CI:1.2-1.6) or middle school (aOR:1.3; 95%CI:1.2-1.6) were associated with increased risk of infection. We found strong protection against symptomatic Delta infection for those with prior infection whether it was recent (2-6 months) (95%; 95%CI:90-97) or associated with one dose (85%; 95%CI:78-90) or two doses of mRNA vaccine (96%; 95%CI:87-99). For those without past infection, protection was lower with two doses of mRNA vaccine (67%; 95%CI:63-71). INTERPRETATION: In line with other observational studies, we find reduced vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic Delta infections. The settings and activities at increased risk of infection indicate where efforts to reinforce individual and public health measures need to be concentrated.

Impact of original, B.1.1.7, and B.1.351/P.1 SARS-CoV-2 lineages on vaccine effectiveness of two doses of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines: Results from a nationwide case-control study in France.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess the effectiveness of two doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against COVID-19 with the original virus and other lineages circulating in France. METHODS: In this nationwide case-control study, cases were SARS-CoV-2 infected adults with onset of symptoms between 14 February and 3 May 2021. Controls were non-infected adults from a national representative panel matched to cases by age, sex, region, population density and calendar week. Participants completed an online questionnaire on recent activity-related exposures and vaccination history. Information about the infecting virus was based on a screening RT-PCR for either B.1.1.7 or B.1.351/P.1 variants. FINDINGS: Included in our analysis were 7 288 adults infected with the original SARS-CoV-2 virus, 31 313 with the B.1.1.7 lineage, 2 550 with B.1.351/P1 lineages, and 3 644 controls. In multivariable analysis, the vaccine effectiveness (95% confidence interval) seven days after the second dose of mRNA vaccine was estimated at 88% (81-92), 86% (81-90) and 77% (63-86) against COVID-19 with the original virus, the B.1.1.7 lineage, and the B.1.351/P.1 lineages, respectively. Recent (2 to 6 months) history of virologically confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection was found to be 83% (76-88), 88% (85-91) and 83% (71-90) protective against COVID-19 with the original virus, the B.1.1.7 lineage, and the B.1.351/P.1 lineages, respectively; and more distant (> 6 months) infections were 76% (54-87), 84% (75-90), and 74% (41-89) protective against COVID-19 with the original virus, the B.1.1.7 lineage, and the B.1.351/P.1 lineages, respectively. INTERPRETATION: In real-life settings, two doses of mRNA vaccines proved to be effective against COVID-19 with the original virus, B.1.1.7 lineage and B.1.351/P.1 lineages. FUNDING: Institut Pasteur, Research & Action Emerging Infectious Diseases (REACTing), Fondation de France (Alliance "Tous unis contre le virus").

A modelling study investigating short and medium-term challenges for COVID-19 vaccination: From prioritisation to the relaxation of measures.

BACKGROUND: The roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines is a multi-faceted challenge whose performance depends on pace of vaccination, vaccine characteristics and heterogeneities in individual risks. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model accounting for the risk of severe disease by age and comorbidity, and transmission dynamics. We compared vaccine prioritisation strategies in the early roll-out stage and quantified the extent to which measures could be relaxed as a function of the vaccine coverage achieved in France. FINDINGS: Prioritizing at-risk individuals reduces morbi-mortality the most if vaccines only reduce severity, but is of less importance if vaccines also substantially reduce infectivity or susceptibility. Age is the most important factor to consider for prioritization; additionally accounting for comorbidities increases the performance of the campaign in a context of scarce resources. Vaccinating 90% of ≥65 y.o. and 70% of 18-64 y.o. before autumn 2021 with a vaccine that reduces severity by 90% and susceptibility by 80%, we find that control measures reducing transmission rates by 15-27% should be maintained to remain below 1000 daily hospital admissions in France with a highly transmissible variant (basic reproduction number R0  = 4). Assuming 90% of ≥65 y.o. are vaccinated, full relaxation of control measures might be achieved with a vaccine coverage of 89-100% in 18-64 y.o or 60-69% of 0-64 y.o. INTERPRETATION: Age and comorbidity-based vaccine prioritization strategies could reduce the burden of the disease. Very high vaccination coverage may be required to completely relax control measures. Vaccination of children, if possible, could lower coverage targets necessary to achieve this objective.

Benefits and risks associated with different uses of the COVID-19 vaccine Vaxzevria: a modelling study, France, May to September 2021.

Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia (TTS) has been identified as a rare adverse event following COVID-19 vaccination with Vaxzevria. We modelled the benefits and risks of Vaxzevria distribution from May to September 2021 in metropolitan France where other vaccines are available, considering French hospitalisation data and European data on TTS. Across different scenarios, benefits of Vaxzevria distribution in people 55 years and older exceeded the risk of death from COVID-19. In young adults, risks were at least of similar magnitude as benefits.

Exposures associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection in France: A nationwide online case-control study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess the role of different setting and activities in acquiring SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: In this nationwide case-control study, cases were SARS-CoV-2 infected adults recruited between 27 October and 30 November 2020. Controls were individuals from the Ipsos market research database matched to cases by age, sex, region, population density and time period. Participants completed an online questionnaire on recent activity-related exposures. FINDINGS: Among 3426 cases and 1713 controls, in multivariable analysis, we found an increased risk of infection associated with any additional person living in the household (adjusted-OR: 1•16; 95%CI: 1•11-1•21); having children attending day-care (aOR: 1•31; 95%CI: 1•02-1•62), kindergarten (aOR: 1•27; 95%CI: 1•09-1•45), middle school (aOR: 1•30; 95%CI: 1•15-1•47), or high school (aOR: 1•18; 95%CI: 1•05-1•34); with attending professional (aOR: 1•15; 95%CI: 1•04-1•26) or private gatherings (aOR: 1•57; 95%CI: 1•45-1•71); and with having frequented bars and restaurants (aOR: 1•95; 95%CI: 1•76-2•15), or having practiced indoor sports activities (aOR: 1•36; 95%CI: 1•15-1•62). We found no increase in risk associated with frequenting shops, cultural or religious gatherings, or with transportation, except for carpooling (aOR: 1•47; 95%CI: 1•28-1•69). Teleworking was associated with decreased risk of infection (aOR: 0•65; 95%CI: 0•56-0•75). INTERPRETATION: Places and activities during which infection prevention and control measures may be difficult to fully enforce were those with increased risk of infection. Children attending day-care, kindergarten, middle and high schools, but not primary schools, were potential sources of infection for the household. FUNDING: Institut Pasteur, Research & Action Emerging Infectious Diseases (REACTing), Fondation de France (Alliance" Tous unis contre le virus").

Lockdown as a last resort option in case of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study.

BackgroundGiven its high economic and societal cost, policymakers might be reluctant to implement a large-scale lockdown in case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic rebound. They may consider it as a last resort option if alternative control measures fail to reduce transmission.AimWe developed a modelling framework to ascertain the use of lockdown to ensure intensive care unit (ICU) capacity does not exceed a peak target defined by policymakers.MethodsWe used a deterministic compartmental model describing transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the trajectories of COVID-19 patients in healthcare settings, accounting for age-specific mixing patterns and an increasing probability of severe outcomes with age. The framework is illustrated in the context of metropolitan France.ResultsThe daily incidence of ICU admissions and the number of occupied ICU beds are the most robust indicators to decide when a lockdown should be triggered. When the doubling time of hospitalisations estimated before lockdown is between 8 and 20 days, lockdown should be enforced when ICU admissions reach 3.0-3.7 and 7.8-9.5 per million for peak targets of 62 and 154 ICU beds per million (4,000 and 10,000 beds for metropolitan France), respectively. When implemented earlier, the lockdown duration required to get back below a desired level is also shorter.ConclusionsWe provide simple indicators and triggers to decide if and when a last-resort lockdown should be implemented to avoid saturation of ICU. These metrics can support the planning and real-time management of successive COVID-19 pandemic waves.

Monitoring the proportion of the population infected by SARS-CoV-2 using age-stratified hospitalisation and serological data: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Regional monitoring of the proportion of the population who have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 is important to guide local management of the epidemic, but is difficult in the absence of regular nationwide serosurveys. We aimed to estimate in near real time the proportion of adults who have been infected by SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: In this modelling study, we developed a method to reconstruct the proportion of adults who have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 and the proportion of infections being detected, using the joint analysis of age-stratified seroprevalence, hospitalisation, and case data, with deconvolution methods. We developed our method on a dataset consisting of seroprevalence estimates from 9782 participants (aged ≥20 years) in the two worst affected regions of France in May, 2020, and applied our approach to the 13 French metropolitan regions over the period March, 2020, to January, 2021. We validated our method externally using data from a national seroprevalence study done between May and June, 2020. FINDINGS: We estimate that 5·7% (95% CI 5·1-6·4) of adults in metropolitan France had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by May 11, 2020. This proportion remained stable until August, 2020, and increased to 14·9% (13·2-16·9) by Jan 15, 2021. With 26·5% (23·4-29·8) of adult residents having been infected in Île-de-France (Paris region) compared with 5·1% (4·5-5·8) in Brittany by January, 2021, regional variations remained large (coefficient of variation [CV] 0·50) although less so than in May, 2020 (CV 0·74). The proportion infected was twice as high (20·4%, 15·6-26·3) in 20-49-year-olds than in individuals aged 50 years or older (9·7%, 6·9-14·1). 40·2% (34·3-46·3) of infections in adults were detected in June to August, 2020, compared with 49·3% (42·9-55·9) in November, 2020, to January, 2021. Our regional estimates of seroprevalence were strongly correlated with the external validation dataset (coefficient of correlation 0·89). INTERPRETATION: Our simple approach to estimate the proportion of adults that have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 can help to characterise the burden of SARS-CoV-2 infection, epidemic dynamics, and the performance of surveillance in different regions. FUNDING: EU RECOVER, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, Fondation pour la Recherche Médicale, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (Inserm).